About the c-PHFS



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About the Public Health Foresight Study

What is the Public Health Foresight Study?

The RIVM Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu National Institute for Health and Environment reports every four years on future developments in public health and care in the Public Health Foresight Study (PHFS). This is laid down by law. The PHFS provides insight into the most important future social challenges in the field of disease and health, health determinants, prevention and health care in the Netherlands. These insights are the basis for the National Health Policy Memorandum (‘Landelijke nota gezondheidsbeleid’) of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport and for local public health policy. The Public Health Foresight Study is drawn up by RIVM at the request of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport. RIVM produces the report in collaboration with many parties in the field (policy, research and practice).

Dutch Public Health Foresight Study, in the light of COVID-19 (c-PHFS)

The Dutch Public Health Foresight study in the light of COVID-19 is a special edition (c-PHSF). RIVM reports in this edition on future developments in the field of public health and care, taking into account the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to the direct consequences such as COVID-19, we also analyse indirect consequences of the COVID-19 crisis. These consequences are diverse, from health effects due to a changing lifestyle and lower levels of provided regular care to the longer-term effects of socio-economic developments.

We produced this publication on behalf of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport. This c-PHFS deviates from the regular completion time of four years. Despite the short turnaround time for this c-PHFS, quality, testing and assurance of the results are of paramount importance.

The c-PHFS consists of various parts

The c- PHFS appears as an e-magazine and as a website. The e-magazine provides a brief overview of the most important findings. On the website you will find underlying information, such as references, methods and data.
The c-
consists of: a Trend Scenario, three COVID -scenarios, different normative perspectives and an in-depth look at four themes:

  1. COVID-19: How much do we already know about SARS-COV-2 and COVID-19?
  2. Health: What impact will the pandemic and the measures have on our health?
  3. Healthcare: We see an increase in healthcare expenditure, and there is increasing pressure on healthcare. How can we continue to meet people's healthcare needs?
  4. Living environment: The local environment in which we live, work, learn and play has a major impact on our health. What changes are we seeing as a result of the COVID crisis?

Deel 2

Trendscenario: possible trends up to 2040

The Trendscenario is an exploration of possible future trends between now and 2040, based on the assumption that current trends continue. So without changes in, or the introduction of new, policies. We have updated the most important trends from the Trendscenario from the PHFS-2018 for this c-PHFS. 

Future developments, in times of COVID

What the future will bring is uncertain. Much of the uncertainty stems from how the corona virus will develop in the coming years. Our knowledge of the new corona pandemic and its consequences is growing, but it is still far from complete. The question is what possible future developments await us in these times of COVID. And how we, as a society, can best prepare for this. Which developments due to the COVID pandemic have a temporary and which will have a lasting effect?

Three COVID-19 scenarios outline possible futures

In the c-PHFS we show in three possible scenarios how the corona virus can develop further. We work with scenarios  because there is a lot of uncertainty and the (still) limited knowledge about the virus. Scenarios help to better estimate the impact that possible future developments may have on public health and care. These COVID scenarios represent the cognitive uncertainties we are dealing with.

Different perspectives on a desirable future

Public health is about more than just COVID-19. Everyone agrees on this. However, people think differently about what exactly is meant by 'more'. Four perspectives on public health make this diversity of views explicit. These perspectives reflect different views on what we would 'wish and want' for the future. We conducted focus group discussions with students in vocational education and with elderly groups to give concrete substance to the different perspectives.


Previous Public Health Foresight studies

The Public Health Foresight study (PHFS, VTV In de Volksgezondheid Toekomst Verkenning (VTV) rapporteert het RIVM elke vier jaar over de ontwikkeling van de volksgezondheid in Nederland. in Dutch)  provides insight into the most important future social challenges in the field of disease and health, health determinants, prevention and health care in the Netherlands. The RIVM Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu has been making the Public Health Foresight Study (PHFS) for more than 25 years , on behalf of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport.

The PHFS describes the most important future developments in the field of public health and care. Health is broadly understood here. The PHFS does not only look at diseases and death, but also at other important aspects of health.  Coherence and an integrated approach are aspects that have made the PHFS a prominent publication for years. 

The Public Health Foresight Study, in the light of COVID-19 (c-PHFS) released in November 2020 . Below are the PHFS made for 2020.

Former editions

Who contributed to the Public Health Foresight Study

Who contributed to the Public Health Foresight Study, in the light of COVID-19 (c-PHFS)

The Dutch Public Health Status and Foresight study is produced  in collaboration with many colleagues. The following people participated in the c-PHFS (employees are from the RIVM Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu unless stated otherwise):

Project team

  • Henk Hilderink, project manager
  • Erwin Eisinger, project manager
  • Els Slichter, project support

Editorial office c-VTV In de Volksgezondheid Toekomst Verkenning (VTV) rapporteert het RIVM elke vier jaar over de ontwikkeling van de volksgezondheid in Nederland.

  • Nicolette Kupper, editor-in-chief
  • Marieke van Bakel, editor-in-chief
  • Johan Polder
  • Casper Schoemaker
  • Julika Vermolen

Team theme COVID-19

  • Pieter de Boer, theme coordinator
  • Giske Lagerweij
  • Susan van den Hof
  • Lucie Vermeulen-Henstra
  • Jacco Wallinga

Experts consulted theme COVID-19

  • Jantien Backer
  • Scott McDonald
  • Susan Hahne
  • Don Klinkenberg

Team theme Health

  • René Poos, theme coordinator
  • Henk Hilderink, theme coordinator
  • Petra Eijsink

Experts consulted theme Health 

  • Liselotte van Asten
  • Esther Croes | Trimbos Institute
  • Sandra van Dijk-de Bruin
  • Ceciel Dinnissen
  • Michel Dückers | LEVEL Netherlands Institute for Healthcare Research  Netherlands Institute for Healthcare Research
  • Maartje Harbers
  • Ninette van Hasselt | Trimbos Institute
  • Patricia Hugen
  • Tessa Hulshof
  • Harry the King | Erasmus University Rotterdam 
  • Lindy Kregting | Erasmus University Rotterdam
  • Giske Lagerweij
  • Susan Meijer
  • Jantien Noorda
  • Iris Seriese
  • Bianca Snijders
  • Niek Stadhouders
  • Mariken Tijhuis
  • Nynke van der Veen
  • Monique Verschuren
  • Colene Summer
  • Femke de Zwart

Team theme Health Care

  • Natascha van Vooren, theme coordinator
  • Geertjan Kommer
  • Josefien de Bruin
  • Fatiha Baâdoudi
  • Adriënne Rotteveel
  • Esther de Weger

Experts consulted on the Healthcare theme

  • Simone de Bruin
  • Hanneke Drewes
  • Anoukh van Giessen
  • Johan Polder
  • Anita Suijkerbuijk

Team theme Living environment

  • Lea den Broeder, theme coordinator
  • Brigit Staatsen, theme coordinator
  • Caroline Ameling
  • Marieke van Bakel
  • Lisbeth Hall
  • Maartje Harbers
  • Danny Houthuijs
  • Hanneke Kruize
  • Yonne Mulder
  • Annemiek van Overveld
  • Annemarie Ruijsbroek
  • Annemieke Spijkerman
  • Ton Schouten
  • Maciel Strak
  • Aletta Tholen
  • Nina van der Vliet
  • Else Zantinge

 Experts consulted theme Living environment

  • Guus de Hollander | PBL Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • Reinout Kleinhans | Delft University of Technology
  • Frank van Lenthe | Erasmus University Rotterdam
  • Joreintje Mackenbach | Amsterdam UMC Universitair Medisch Centrum University Medical Center  University Medical Center  / Free University
  • Marga Ocké
  • Fenne Pinkster | University of Amsterdam
  • Maartje Poelman | Wageningen University and Research
  • Liesbeth van Rossum
  • Yzette Smulders | iResearch
  • Liesbeth Temme
  • Lenneke Vaandrager | Wageningen University and Research
  • Arnoud Verhoeff | University of Amsterdam
  • Annemiek Visser | iResearch
  • Joram van der Velde | iResearch

Team theme Challenges

  • Casper Schoemaker, theme coordinator
  • Fatima Arrahmani
  • Frank den Hertog
  • Johan Melse
  • Robert Vonk | Council for Health and Society

Team theme Young people

  • Frank den Hertog, theme coordinator
  • Fatima Arrahmani
  • Johan Melse
  • Robert Vonk | RVS
  • Casper Schoemaker

Team theme Elderly

  • Monique Verschuren, theme coordinator
  • Liset Rietman, theme coordinator

Experts consulted on the Elderly theme

  • Fatiha Baâdoudi 
  • Simone de Bruin
  • Meta de Graaff |  NUZO
  • Gerrie-Cor Herber 
  • Monique Leijen
  • Fons van der Lucht
  • Elisabeth van Oostrum | NUZO and Council of Elderly
  • Susan Picavet
  • Annemieke Spijkerman

Team Trend Scenario

  • René Poos, coordinator
  • Henk Hilderink
  • Marjanne Plasmans

Team website and communication c-VTV

  • Cindy Deuning
  • Nicolette Kupper (coordination)
  • Marcel Paul Scholten
  • Els Slichter
  • Eveline van der Wilk
  • José Woudstra

RIVM Management team

  • Mariska van Blankers
  • Mariken Leurs
  • Jaap van Delden
  • Marith Volp
  • Hans Brug

Other who contributed: Carolien van den Brink, Jenny Bruggink, Bart Elferink, Linda Grievink, Frank Jager, Jelle Janssen, Sjoerd Kooiker (SCP), Annieka Koster, Mirjam Kroeze, Ratna van der Kuilen, Karin Proper, Angélique Salomons, Sonja Sligchers and Carola Wouters.

The following supervisory committees are involved in the development of the c-PHFS:

RIVM advisory board

The RIVM advisory board has an advisory role and contributes to the quality, coherence and internal (RIVM) consistency of the PHFS project. In addition, the KBR monitors the consistency between different RIVM products. The KBR is an internal RIVM group and is chaired by the Director of Public Health and Health Care. The KBR consists of representatives from different domains of the RIVM.

  • Mariska van Blankers
  • Sander Clahsen
  • Jaap van Delden
  • Birte van Elk
  • René van der Ent
  • Susan van den Hof
  • Loes Lanting
  • Birgit Loos
  • Rob Maas
  • Johan Polder
  • Rob Riesmeijer
  • Ana Maria de Roda Husman
  • Lieke Sanders
  • Remco Steenbergen
  • Heddy de Wijs

RIVM employees / experts are part of the following domains / centers:
Domain Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology: Center for Infectious Disease Control, Center for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology
Domain for Environment and Safety: Center for Sustainability, Environment and Health, Center for Environmental Quality, Center for Safety Substances and Products, Center for Safety
Domain of Public Health and Care: Center for Health and Society, Center for Nutrition, Prevention and Care

Scientific Advisory board VTV 

The Scientific Advisory board assesses the scientific quality, coherence and consistency of the PHFS project. The Scientific Advisory Board consists of leading experts from the scientific field and is chaired by the DG of the RIVM.

  • prof.dr. Pim van Assendelft | Radboud University Medical Center
  • dr.ir. Ingrid Bakker 
  • prof.dr. Lex Burdorf | Erasmus Medical Center
  • Dr. Marcel Canoy
  • prof.dr. Pim Cuijpers | University of Amsterdam
  • prof.dr. Semiha Think bag | Erasmus University Rotterdam
  • prof.dr. Pearl Dykstra | Erasmus University Rotterdam
  • prof.dr. Halleh Ghorashi | Free University of Amsterdam
  • prof.dr.ir. Dick Heederik | University of Utrecht
  • dr. Guus de Hollander | PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • prof.dr. Maria van den Muijsenbergh | Radboud University Medical Center
  • prof.dr. Maria Prins | Amsterdam University Medical Center
  • prof.dr. Dirk Ruwaard | University of Maastricht
  • prof.dr. Karien Stronks, chairman | Amsterdam University Medical Center
  • drs. Marlous Rodriguez, secretary | RIVM

Departmental committees and project groups

Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport: During the realization, there have been many consultation with different committees and directorates of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport. In addition, the Interdepartmental Directors' Consultation 'Steering Group Impact on Health' has been informed. This includes various ministries.


Do you have questions?

If you have any questions or comments regarding this website, please send your question to  vtv@rivm.nl . We will then contact you. The  Public Health Status and Foresight Study  is done by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu). Do you have a question for RIVM, you can contact RIVM via  info@rivm.nl .

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